Today in Technology History
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February 15
Eighty years ago, on February 15, 1922, Herman Kahn was born in Bayonne, New Jersey. He was a futurologist who concentrated on military technology and nuclear weapons.
Kahn studied physics and began working for the RAND Corporation while trying to get a doctorate. His expertise in history and technology made him useful as a consultant to U.S. military and civilian leaders.
He was catapulted to fame -- or notoriety -- with the publication of his 1960 book On Thermonuclear War, in which he argued that nuclear war would not necessarily destroy mankind:
A thermonuclear war is quite likely to be an unprecedented catastrophe for the defender. Depending on the military course of events, it may or may not be an unprecedented catastrophe for the attacker, and for some neutrals as well. But an "unprecedented" catastrophe can be a far cry from an "unlimited" one. Most important of all, sober study shows that the limits on the magnitude of the catastrophe seem to be closely dependent on what kinds of preparations have been made, and on how the war is started and fought.
The controversial book was characteristic of Kahn's unusual thinking. (For instance, one section of the book was titled "World War I through World War VIII.")
In later publications, he made wide-ranging predictions about the future of technology and society. He argued that we are currently in the middle of a 400-year post-industrial period of turmoil that will end with human beings "numerous, rich and in control of the forces of nature."
Kahn founded the Hudson Institute, an organization concerned with many of the ideas and issues that interested him. He died in 1983 at the age of 61.
Related links:
Click here to read more about Herman Kahn.
This article discusses Kahn and one of his predictions.
Click here for the homepage of the Hudson Institute, the think tank Kahn founded.
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