Why Study Innovation?
Technological progress proceeds unflinchingly while, breathless, we try to stay apace. Scientific research spurs technological ingenuity, and inventions unimaginable merely a generation ago are now being realized. It is difficult to predict the direction of technological advance, and it is impossible to gauge precisely the effects of each new innovation – but it is nonetheless important to stay apprised of the general status of technological research, to better prepare for the future.
The Center’s focus on Innovation highlights the progress of technology, particularly in fields that, because they are still developing, do not fit neatly into our other areas of concentration. Here are a few examples:
Better techniques for computing. Computer processors have gotten faster and smaller, a trend that is likely to continue for the immediate future. There are, however, physical boundaries to computing – since our computers rely on electricity, our miniaturization is limited by the size of electrons. At that size, the random fluctuations of subatomic particles will obey the unusual laws of quantum probability – ushering in a new, powerful era in computing history.
Artificial intelligence. For decades, computers have been able to perform mathematical calculations more quickly than humans. In the foreseeable future, however, computer processors will reach speeds that might permit them to mimic more subtle human characteristics – including personality. Computer scientists are collaborating with psychologists to unlock the secrets of the human mind, and replicate human thought in computerized “neural networks.”
Virtual reality. Also, powerful computers will help us attain more convincing virtual reality. To date, virtual reality has been handicapped by computers too weak to simulate the real world, and by poor input and output equipment – but researchers have recently made great strides in both these areas. Convincing virtual reality will be an invaluable asset for training and entertainment.
Cybernetics. While virtual reality seeks to trick our senses, cybernetics seeks to enhance them. Cybernetics is a marriage of technology and flesh. It already exists in the most rudimentary of our augmentations: wristwatches, contact lenses, pacemakers. Seen soberly – without the worries of cyborgs – cybernetics is the smoothing over of the interface between humans and their machines.
Nanotechnology. Not only are computers getting smaller, but so are machines. Researchers studying nanotechnology – that is, mechanics at a molecular level – have made astounding breakthroughs in recent years. Sub-microscopic machines will fundamentally change manufacturing and medicine, since they will be able to construct objects or repair damaged cells at the molecular level. While practical applications are still years away, the implications of nanotechnology are remarkable.
We will also keep tabs on other significant areas, such as robotics, cryonics and space technology.
Despite the admonitions of certain professional “futurists,” society need not experience a drastic “future shock.” By keeping on top of the major technological advances – even the obscure trends – we can welcome and shape the future, not fear it.Back to the Innovation Issue Area
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